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North Harbour

The Downunder View

Name: Morgan Maskell | Gender: M | Member Since January 2, 2008
Current Level: Superstar | Email: Private
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NBA playoff system is flawed

Posted on: April 23, 2008 5:50 am
 

After the first three playoff matches had finished I saw that all three were 2-0 after finished their two games on homecourt. 94% of teams since 1984 have gone to the second round after going up 2-0.

You take a 52-30 team with a 27-14 road / 25-16 home team who won the regular season series and put them on their home court to play two straight matches against a 41-41 team with a 16-25 road / 25-16 home team, chances are the first team will take the first two matches. As the Orlando Magic did, against the Toronto Raptors. Anyone think Toronto can win 4 out of 5 against Dwight Howard and the Magic? Im sure there is a few eager Raptors fans who believe that, but the neutral, unbiased and clear-minded posters will all see that they don't have much of a chance.

Once the better team is up 2-0, and the lower ranked team needs to win 4 out of 5 to win. It gets hard. Only 6% of teams have actually done it in recent history. Even though the team now has two straight home games, it is very very difficult to defeat the same opponent 4 times out of 5 when they are better and have momentum on you...It isn't like it is inachieveable, it is just incredibly difficult. You look at Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks, (lets just assume that Boston has won game 2) even though Atlanta has two straight games at home, how hard will it be considering that Boston is not only a much much better team but also they have momentum on them.

As we get further into the playoffs, and we see the better teams go through. We will start to see 34-7 home teams against 35-6 home teams. Home court will be fortress'es for those teams (as if they aren't already) and having the first two games at home will be absolutely crucial. If Boston gets its first two games against Detroit at home with tight wins that could be the psychological advantage that determines those final games. That could lead to Boston taking game 3 or 4 and then the series. That will be tough for Detroit, if they hit two straight losses in the finals against Boston they will be hit hard.

Once again, it isn't inachieveable (Look at Utah @ Houston) but how hard is it to win those first two on the road. Then having to win 4 of 5 against the same team that beat you twice in a row. The lower ranked teams are disadvantaged through playing harder opponents and having one less home game, which is fair and fine. But if they don't win one of those first two road games against a very good team they must win 4 of 5, winning one of those first two is vital to keeping your chances alive and that is very difficult at best. 

 

Category: NBA
Reputation: 97
Level: Superstar
Since: Jan 2, 2008
Posted on: April 23, 2008 9:59 pm

NBA playoff system is flawed

Obviously Im over-exargerating to make a point but 6% since 1984 have won the series since going 2-0 down....Teams work all season for home court advantage and lesser skilled opposition, and isn't that home court advantage given to them by having 4 home games to the opponents 3?

Id prefer it if it started off 1 home, 1 away to get the series started on skill. (over-exargerating, I know it's on skilla lready, jsut go with me) So if it was 2-0, you would know that this team can get it done without great momentum and psychological advantages etc. Then have the double header of home and away games.

I agree that great teams will find a way to win on the road, but all Im saying is that it is pretty tough for those teams. 

Looking at Boston and Detroit if Boston can get two up on it's home games then take its "momentum and psychological advantages" in their away games and take one of those. It will be 3-1. Detroit would need to win four straight, with Boston already having worn them down a bit and coming into an away game at Boston.

I like upsets as much as the next guy, and yes they are called upsets for a reason, 6% is a bit low...if it were 1-1 then double header for instance the chances could move up to 20%-25% which I thought they would be.

So because Boston, Detroit, and Orlando are clearly better teams, we should give their opponents advantages, that way the playoffs are more exciting. -Dormanium.

No, just less disadvantages. They are already playing a better team with less home games. I thought those were the disadvantages..



Reputation: 97
Level: Superstar
Since: Nov 17, 2006
Posted on: April 24, 2008 3:40 am

NBA playoff system is flawed

That's why there's emphasis on playing well in the regular season .. that way you can get those first two games at home.  It's rewarding the teams that suceeded in the regular season.



Reputation: 97
Level: Superstar
Since: Jan 2, 2008
Posted on: April 24, 2008 8:38 pm

NBA playoff system is flawed

I know, but I thought the advantages were having more home court games and playing a lesser opponent. But having two straight games at home, having psychological advantage and momentum going in to game three with the other team needing to win 4 out of 5 is a bit too much I think.

Upsets create such huge excitement, obviously I dont want to make them too easy but just look at the Giants and Patriots...with a seven game first round series and two straight home game it is too hard unless to really have the wood over them, ie the Warriors beat the Mavs in the reg season last year...



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I am from New Zealand and I'm the current NBA Boards Rookie of the Year. I love watching Rugby, I follow it religiously.
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